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News Index || Archives || Search News :: <-Back | Latest news Index | Calling All Workers Wal-Mart in the United States is well known for employing retirees. Age is no barrier as the world's biggest retailer looks to fill positions from official greeter to check-out person and stock filler. It is not unusual to be greeted by women or men in their 70s, even 80s, in regional Wal-Mart stores accross the US. By contrast, Australia's biggest retailer, Woolworths, tends to employ young people. Almost half of it's work force is under 25, only 6 per cent is over 55. However this is likely to change. Wal-Mart is simply doing what plenty of Australian businesses will have to do: employ older workers. Finding workers will be a catchcry of the Austalian economy during the next 20 years. Already surveys of businesses show that lack of skilled workers is the prime constraint on expansion. The problem will only be exacerbated by the ageing of the population which will occur as the baby-boomer generation retires. About 85 per cent of the population is of the usual working age (65 and younger). In 40 years, that figure will be closer to 75 per cent. Reserve Bank of Australia govenor Glenn Stevens is aware of the staff shortages. "I asked businesses to rank what is that is that is preventing an expansion: demand, finance, goverment red tape, interest rates or whatever. The number one answer...is shortage of labour," he told federal parliment's economic comitee recently. "My reading of what we gleaned from the talks that our staff have with businesses each month is that it is just shortages of labour generally that are, impediment to an expansion of business operations." In other words, it is the labour market- not interest rates or consumer demand- that is the biggest issue facing Australian Business. This is not to suprising. The economic enviroment is very business- friendly, despite the recent jump in interest rates and squeeze on credit. The economy is slowing from an annual clip of close to 4 per cent to about 3 per cent- under the long-term average (about 3.5 per cent) but still a respectable number. Retail sales figures, which reflect overall consumption in the economy, show that cash registers have not been running as often during the first couple of months this year. Anecdotal evidence from groups such as David Jones and Myers suggests this will continue. But overall consumption is holding up reasonably well. The housing market is patchy, although recent goverment programs will help. And the economies of Australia's trading partners are slowing. The US appears to be in recession while China, Japan and Europe are expected to grow at a slower pace this year. However, Australia's terms of trade- the ratio of the price of exports to the price of imports- is expected to rise as commodity prices, notably iron ore, increase. The consenus is that the local economy will slow and inflation will peak during the current half-year. In fact, some well-regarded market economists think that the 12 interest rate rises since 2002 will be enough to slow inflation and the economy. Macquarie Bank interest rate strategist Rory Robertson thinks rates could start falling later this year. "The RBA confirmed again [last week] that monetary policy is firmly on hold at 7.25 per cent," he says. "My view remains that a further intensification of the global credit crunch could easily see the RBA easing within six to 12 months." But even if the economy does slow sharply, it is unlikely to push the unemployment rate up substantially. Apart from the aging workforce over the past 20 years, thanks to labour market reforms by the Coalition and Labor goverments. Over those 20 years, the unemployment rate in Australia has peaked at close to 11 per cent after the early 1990s economic downturn before heading lower through most of the past decade. The unemployment is now about its lowest level in a generation. The composition of the workforce has changed considerably. In 1988, almost 6 per cent of the workforce earned a living from agriculture, forestry and fishing. Today only 3.1 per cent fit that category. Manufacturing is the other notable loser, now accounting for 10.5 per cent of the workforce, down from 16 per cent. The number of workers in health and communication, education and the service industry, including those in cafes and resturants, has increased as a proportion to the total workforce. But the main gainers in terms of employees have been construction and the property and business services sectors. In 1988, the construction sector employed about 500,000 people, or 7 per cent of the workforce. Today, that sector includes almost 1 million workers, or 9.2 per cent of the workforce. And growth in the property and business services sector is even more impressive- increasing from 500,000 workers to 1.3 million, or 12.2 per cent of the workforce. Mining- the boom sector and current bedrock of growth- employs only 1.3 per cent of the workforce. Twenty years ago it employed 1.4 per cent. In Australia, commodity prices have spurred the boom- not larger quantities of exports. There have been a few other notable changes in employment over the past 20 years. The female unemployment rate used to be higher than the male unemployment rate. But thoughout most of the 1990s and the first few years in the current decade, the male rate of unemployment was mostly higher. In the past couple of years that has changed again, and the female rate of unemployment has returned to being higher than the male. There has also been a shift in the number of unemployed looking for part-time work. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reports that 20 years ago, about 16 per cent of the jobless were looking for part-time work; today, the figure is closer to 30 per cent (the rest, presumably, are looking for full-time work). What seems certain is that businesses looking for workers will have to appreciate two decades of changes. Workers are migrating to more successful industries in the service sectors, and away from the other unionised sectors. Business owners are going to find it hard being choosy, and older workers are likely to be in demand. print News 30 Apr 2008 by Steve Mcleod The source of this news item was: BRW April 10-16 08.